Newspaper reports Dr Van Schaik's football probability

Manchester City have had a difficult draw this season in the FA and League Cups.

Dr Van Schaik has calculated the probability for the Blues' tough cup draw

The Manchester Evening News this week ran a story based on local team Manchester City's difficult draws in domestic cup competitions.

In the FA and League Cups this season they have been drawn to play away in the last nine ties and each time selected against Premier League or one of the top six promotion teams in the Championship.

Dr Kees Van Schaik Lecturer in Actuarial Science (part of the Probability and Statistics Group) from the School of Mathematics has come up with the following amazing result:

He calculated that the chances of being drawn away nine times consecutively are around 512-1.

And he then worked out that the odds of those nine draws all being against one of the top 26 teams still in the competition comes in at 199-1.

And if you combine the probability of the two,  Dr van Schaik comments : “The probability that Man City draws against a top team AND is the away team in all nine below draws is as small as approximately 0.00001, which in terms of odds is, pretty much, one in 100,000.”

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