Programme
of the Symposium
The following gives a brief breakdown
of the main areas of activity for the Symposium.
1. General
theory of optimal stopping
The opening morning lecture will
be given by E. Snell who will speak on his fundamental discovery from 1952
(Snell's envelope). Remaining talks in the morning will be devoted to the
martingale approach to optimal stopping both in discrete and continuous
time. The opening afternoon lecture was to be given by E. Dynkin who was
to speak on his fundamental discovery from 1963 (superharmonic characterization).
Remaining talks in the afternoon will be devoted to the Markovian approach
to optimal stopping both in discrete and continuous time. Continuous time
problems will be tackled using general techniques including variational
inequalities. Discrete time problems are subject to a number of additional
mathematical curiosities over and above what one may experience for continuous
time models. Combinatorial aspects and techniques based around discrete
probability will be exposed in both morning and afternoon sessions. This
will include reviews and extensions of classical problems such as the parking
problem, secretary-type problems, and problems involving sequences of independent
indicators for example.
2. Optimal
stopping and free boundary problems
The connection between optimal stopping
problems and free-boundary problems in mathematical physics (the obstacle
problem and the Stefan problem describing the process of melting and solidification)
raises many challenging questions to analysts when the underlying Markov
process has jumps (such as Lévy processes). In this case one needs
to deal with PIDEs (instead of PDEs) and very little is known about regularity
of the fundamental solution. On the other hand, the methods relying upon
local-time calculus allow an approach to the problem via nonlinear integral
equations for the optimal boundary so that existence and uniqueness results
can still be proved. This line of research is very promising but still
needs to be fully developed. Principally, this day will be devoted to the
issue of stochastic representation which lies at the heart of the relationship
between free boundary problems and optimal stopping problems. The morning
will be devoted to probabilistic/analytical methods and the afternoon to
numerical methods. Special attention will be given to PDEs and PIDEs solved
by the value function. This will include modern methods such as randomization
of time horizons, viscosity solutions, as well as more classical methods
of analysis including variational inequalities. In addition, characterizations
of optimal stopping boundaries (via nonlinear integral equations for example)
will play an important role. Issues such as their smoothness and asymptotic
behaviour will be brought to light.
3. Methods
of solution
As optimal stopping theory may not
necessarily be considered as a categorical theory, quite often one finds
that the extent to which a technique may be used only extends to a limited
class of problems. On this day speakers will offer an assortment of problems
in which different probabilistic techniques have been applied offering
access to solutions to different classes of problems. In addition to exposing
ad-hoc methods, the aim of the talks will also be to expose principles
which can be found common to all optimal stopping problems. Topics will
include the following.
(1) The principles of smooth and
continuous fit. Recent advances in clarification of the two most useful
analytic facts are to be exposed. Illuminating discussions on this topic
are anticipated.
(2) The maximality principle. The
intriguing problem is to examine under what conditions this principle remains
valid for Markov processes with jumps. Some of the recent work has focused
on clarifying this issue in some special cases of Lévy processes.
(3) Fluctuation theory of Lévy
processes and applications to optimal stopping. Many solutions to optimal
stopping problems boil down to a first passage problem of an underlying
Markov process. The recent advances in the theory of Lévy processes,
and in particular fluctuation theory, has also provided a cache of knowledge
offering new possibilities for solving optimal stopping problems driven
by Lévy processes.
(4) Stochastic analysis and sharp
inequalities. The most challenging problem remains to determine the best
constant in the classic Burkholder-Davis-Gundy inequality. Some recent
progress in this direction is to be disclosed.
4. Applications
I (Financial Mathematics)
The aim of this day will be to expose
three main applications of optimal stopping in financial mathematics.
(1) A number of recent contributions
to the pricing of American type options in Black-Scholes and other semi-martingale
markets (in particular Lévy driven markets) will be exposed. Examples
of such options include the classical American put (for which new results
are still being established), Russian options, Asian options, Integral
options, Bermudan options and so on. Attention will be drawn to accurate
characterizations of optimal exercise boundaries, early exercise decompositions,
and associated free boundary problems.
(2) Credit risk has recently shown
that the issue of establishing endogenous default levels for the equity
of a firm boils down to understanding a particular class of optimal stopping
problems. This most recent direction and its intimate relationship with
smooth and continuous fit principles will be considered.
(3) Game type options are a natural
extension of American type options. These are options in which both writer
and seller have the right to exercise, each resulting in a pay out for
the holder. The writer's objective to minimize the payout and the holder
to maximize. A number of recent examples of such options have been considered
both with finite and infinite time horizons. Results in this direction
as well as the many challenges that lay ahead will be presented here.
5. Applications
II (Sequential Analysis)
The aim of this day will be to focus
on the following topics:
(1) Sequential testing. The old problem
of testing three simple hypotheses still remains unsolved. It is hoped
that the recent advances in characterizing the optimal boundaries as unique
solutions of nonlinear integral equations may be helpful in tackling the
problem.
(2) Quickest detection. Recent applications
involve a quickest detection of arbitrage. A significant progress in understanding
the problem is achieved for Markov processes with jumps and the exchange
of facts and ideas in this direction will be most stimulating and useful.
(3) Optimal prediction. This is a
new problem formulation in continuous time where the underlying gain process
is not adapted. Recently developed techniques to solve problems of this
type are to be exposed. New optimal prediction problems are to be formulated.
These problems appear useful in diverse applications, most notably in financial
mathematics and financial engineering.
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